欧洲聚合物需求将受GDP增长放缓影响

中国石化新闻网 2020-03-16

中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站3月12日伦敦报道 根据ICIS的分析,欧洲2020年较低的GDP增长可能会减少对聚合物的需求,尽管去库存效应可能不如2008-2009年金融危机时明显。

目前有三个相互关联的因素正在影响欧洲和全球的聚合物需求:原油价格下跌、冠状病毒和总体经济不景气。

显然,这些因素并不相互独立:冠状病毒的需求减弱加剧了经济萎靡和油价疲软。

国内生产总值预测几乎每天都在下调。

冠状病毒的爆发和各国政府的封锁已经导致需求下降。

牛津经济研究院驻伦敦的分析师将欧盟今年的GDP增长预期下调至0.6%,为7年来最低,比一年前的预测低了约1.3个百分点。

理论上,这导致整个欧洲地区对塑料的需求减少。

受冲击最大的是用于服装的聚酯纤维、聚氯乙烯(PVC)和聚丙烯(PP)。

通过回归分析法,对于许多聚合物而言,0.6%的GDP增长率可以转化为2020年树脂需求的下降,其中聚氯乙烯和低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)可能下降约1.5%。

王磊 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下:

Europe polymers demand to be hit by slowing GDP growth

Europe's lower GDP growth in 2020 could cut demand for polymers, although the destocking effect may be less pronounced than in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, according to analysis by ICIS.

Three interlinked factors are currently impacting polymer demand in Europe and globally: lower crude oil prices, coronavirus, and general economic malaise.

These factors are not independent of each other, obviously: weaker demand from the coronavirus adds to the economic malaise and weak oil prices.

GDP forecasts are being downgraded on an almost daily basis.

The coronavirus outbreak and, more importantly, lockdown efforts by national governments have already led to lower demand.

London-based analysts at Oxford Economics have cut GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone to 0.6% this year, the weakest in seven years, and around 1.3 percentage points lower than forecasts a year ago.

In theory this leads to a cut in demand for plastics across the European region.

The most impacted are polyester fibres which are used for clothing, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene (PP).

Using regression analysis, we can see that for many polymers the 0.6% GDP growth rate could translate as a fall in demand for resin in 2020, with PVC and low density polyethylene (LDPE) likely to be down around 1.5%.

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