能源世界:全球能源转型已在顺利进行

中国石化新闻网 2020-09-17

    中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网9月12日报道,决策者仍然倾向于以未来时态谈论全球能源转型,因为在未来几十年中可能或将发生一些事情,但这一转型已经在顺利地进行,并显示出加速的迹象。

    全球能源消耗已经从20世纪中叶的煤炭和石油为主的系统转变为21世纪中叶将以天然气和可再生能源为主的系统。

    2014年-2019年的五年中,天然气和可再生能源(主要是风能、太阳能和生物燃料)的全球能源消费增长速度远远快于整个能源消费。

    可再生能源的复合年增长率超过12.5%,而天然气的复合增长率为2.9%,两者均快于总能耗增长1.6%的速度。

    相比之下,同期石油消费增长慢于消费总量(增长1.4%),煤炭消费量下降(-0.5%)。结果,天然气和可再生能源占据了能源市场份额,尤其是煤炭市场,但石油市场份额较小。

    这些过程可能在未来几十年继续下去,但这一过渡不一定会导致二氧化碳排放量减少,因为天然气和可再生能源的生产能力将太低,无法满足所有能源需求的增加。

    市场份额

    与2014年相比,2019年天然气占所有额外能源消耗的43%,而可再生能源和石油各占29%。

    近年来,这一变化加快了,2019年可再生能源占额外能源消耗的41%,天然气占36%,石油仅占21%。

    根据英国石油公司(BP)的估计,石油和煤炭仍然是最大的主要能源,领先于天然气、水力、可再生能源和核能。

    但是,石油在全球能源结构中所占的份额自50世纪70年代以来一直在下降,而煤炭的份额现在也似乎在下降(《世界能源统计回顾》,BP,2020年)。

    根据最近的趋势,未来五年,天然气可能会超过煤炭,成为第二大能源来源。 可再生能源已经通过核能,并将在21世纪20年代中期超过水力发电。

    天然气已将其在全球消费中的份额从1999年的不到22%增加到24%,而可再生能源则从不到1%增加到5%。

    总能量

    能源转换的下一阶段已经开始。但是,了解过渡意味着什么,更重要的是,它对消耗不同的能源和二氧化碳排放来说,是至关重要的。

    石油和煤炭的消费量即使在市场份额方面的相对重要性下降,也不一定会绝对减少,正如20世纪煤炭和石油的经历所表明的那样。

    石油在全球能源结构中所占的份额从1973年的50%的峰值降至2019年的33%,这主要是由于石油输出国组织(OPEC)努力保持高油价的结果。

    但以绝对值计算,石油日消费量继续增加,从1973年的5600万桶增加到2019年的1.01亿桶。

    能源总消耗量增长如此之快,以至于增加了所有能源的消耗,即便是相对下降的能源。

    这意味着随着天然气,石油甚至煤炭消耗量的增加,能源转型可能会导致排放量增加,即使可再生能源的产量增长更快。

    为了使可再生能源完全替代煤炭,他们目前的能源产量将需要增加五倍,而替代石油,其能源产量将必须增加近七倍。

    为了替代所有化石燃料的燃烧,风能和太阳能的产量将需要比目前水平增加近17倍。

    而且,如果未来几十年全球能源消耗继续增加,尤其是在中低收入国家,则替代化石燃料的可再生能源的增长将需要更大。

    关键的教训

    未来二十年,即使可再生能源增加了其在能源市场中的份额,全球的天然气(肯定),石油(很可能)和煤炭(可能)的消费绝对值仍将继续增长。

    考虑到这一现实,可能没有办法实现二氧化碳排放量和全球温度升高的全球目标,而这并不涉及大规模扩大核能和水力发电量。

    而且,大量化石燃料的持续燃烧将必须与碳捕集与封存技术的广泛部署相结合,以抵消隐含的排放量上升。

    但随着可再生能源和其他能源的扩大,石油和天然气将跟随煤炭,并越来越多地被迫在价格上与其他能源竞争,以保持它们在能源组合中的作用。

    煤炭在20世纪下半叶和21世纪初一直在能源系统中发挥着重要作用,因为它比其他替代品便宜。

    石油和天然气可能遵循相同的轨迹。 随着可再生能源等替代能源的增长,石油和天然气将必须保持相对便宜才能维持其市场。

    未来的价格飙升将加速向竞争能源的转变,并导致绝对和相对消耗的损失。

    特别是石油消费将变得越来越容易受到源间竞争的影响,因为它的价格和二氧化碳排放量较高。

    欧佩克的作用将不得不从试图通过限制产量和推高价格来使收入最大化转变为捍卫石油剩余的能源市场份额。

    在21世纪20年代下半叶到本世纪30年代,该组织将越来越专注于在一个完全成熟的行业中分配生产和投资,而这个行业很可能会长期受到产能过剩的困扰。

    郝芬 译自 能源世界网

    原文如下:

    Global Energy Transition Already Well Underway

    Policymakers still tend to talk about the global energy transition in the future tense, as something that might or will happen in the next few decades, but the transition is already well underway and shows signs of accelerating.

    Global energy consumption has already been shifting from a mid-20th century system dominated by coal and oil to one that will be dominated by gas and renewables by the mid-21st century.

    Global energy consumption from natural gas and renewables (mostly wind, solar and biofuels) grew much faster than energy consumption as a whole over the five years between 2014 and 2019.

    Renewables increased at a compound annual rate of more than 12.5% while gas increased at a rate of 2.9%, both much faster than total energy consumption growth of 1.6%.

    By contrast, oil consumption grew more slowly than consumption as a whole (+1.4%) and coal consumption fell (-0.5%) over the same periodThe result is that gas and renewables have been seizing energy market share, especially from coal but to a lesser extent from oil as well.

    Those processes are likely to continue over the next few decades, but the transition will not necessarily result in lower CO2 emissions because production capacity of gas and renewables will be too low to meet all the increase in energy demand.

    MARKET SHARES

    Gas accounted for 43% of all the extra energy consumed in 2019 compared with 2014, while renewables and oil each accounted for an extra 29%.

    In recent years, the shift has accelerated, with renewables accounting for 41% of extra energy consumed in 2019, gas accounting for 36%, while oil accounted for just 21%.

    Oil and coal remain the largest primary sources of energy, ahead of gas, hydro, renewables and nuclear power, according to estimates prepared by BP.

    But oil’s share of the global energy mix has been falling since the 1970s and coal’s share now also appears to be in decline (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, 2020).

    Gas is likely to surpass coal to become the second-largest source of energy in the next five years, based on the recent trend. Renewables have already passed nuclear and are set to overtake hydro by the mid-2020s.

    Gas has already increased its share of global consumption to 24%, from less than 22% in 1999, while renewables have grown to 5%, from less than 1%.

    TOTAL ENERGY

    The next phase of the energy transition is already underway. But it is critical to understand what the transition means, and more importantly what it doesn’t, for consumption of different sources of energy and CO2 emissions.

    Oil and coal consumption will not necessarily decline in absolute terms, even if their relative importance in terms of market share falls, as illustrated by the experience of coal and then oil during the 20th century.

    Oil’s share of the global energy mix fell to just 33% in 2019 from a peak of 50% in 1973, largely as a result of efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to keep prices high.

    But in absolute terms, oil consumption continued to increase, reaching 101 million barrels per day in 2019, up from 56 million bpd in 1973.

    Total energy consumption has risen so strongly it has lifted consumption from all sources, even those in relative decline.

    That means the energy transition could see emissions rise as consumption of gas, oil and possibly even coal increase, even as renewables' output increases faster.

    For renewables to entirely replace coal, their current energy output would need to be scaled up by five times, while to replace oil, their output would have to be scaled up almost seven times.

    To replace all fossil fuel combustion, wind and solar output would need to be scaled up by a total of almost 17 times from current levels.

    And if global energy consumption continues to increase in the next few decades, particularly in low and middle-income countries, the growth in renewables to replace fossil fuels would need to be even greater.

    KEY LESSONS

    Global consumption of gas (certainly), oil (probably) and coal (possibly) will continue to grow in absolute terms in the next two decades, even as renewables increase their share of the energy market.

    Given that reality, there is probably no way to meet global targets for CO2 emissions and global temperature increases that does not involve a significant scaling up of electricity generation from nuclear and hydro power.

    And the continued combustion of large amounts of fossil fuels will have to be paired with extensive deployment of carbon capture and storage technology to offset the implied rise in emissions.

    But as renewables and other energy sources expand, oil and gas are set to follow coal and increasingly be forced to compete on price against other sources to maintain their roles in the energy mix.

    Coal retained a large role in the energy system during the second half of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st by remaining cheaper than alternatives.

    Oil and gas are likely to follow the same trajectory. With the growth of alternatives such as renewables, oil and gas will have to remain relatively cheap to maintain their markets.

    Future price spikes will accelerate the shift to competing energy sources, and result in the loss of absolute as well as relative consumption.

    Oil consumption in particular will become increasingly vulnerable to inter-source competition, given its higher price and CO2 emissions.

    OPEC’s role will have to evolve from trying to maximize revenues by restricting output and pushing prices higher to defending oil’s remaining energy market share.

    In the second half of the 2020s and into the 2030s, the organization will become increasingly preoccupied with allocating production and investment in a fully mature industry likely to be plagued by chronic overcapacity.

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