中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻10月28日消息称，周二，在新加坡国际能源周的虚拟会议上，切尼尔能源公司的一位高管表示，预计从2019年到2040年，液化天然气(LNG)贸易将增长约3.4%。 切尼尔亚洲业务部门副总裁道格·沃顿（Doug Wharton）表示：“据此，我们认为，到2030年，市场需要新增约1亿吨供应，到2040年，每年还需要新增2.6亿吨供应。” 他说:“我们认为市场将继续增长，我们需要找到增加市场供应的方法。” 曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻 原文如下： LNG trade estimated to grow 3.4% from 2019 to 2040 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is expected to grow about 3.4% from 2019 to 2040, a senior executive from Cheniere Energy Inc said at a virtual conference during the Singapore International Energy Week on Tuesday. “Using that, we think the market needs about 100 million tonnes of new supply by 2030 and an additional 260 million tonnes per annum by 2040,” said Doug Wharton, vice president of origination at Cheniere’s Asia division. “We think the market is going to continue to grow and we need to find a way to add new supply to market,” he said.
中国石化新闻网讯 据管道油气新闻网10月28日消息：道达尔在距南非南部海岸175公里的Outeniqua盆地11B/12B区块Luiperd气田发现了大量凝析气。 在此之前，邻近的Brulpadda油田于2019年被发现，该发现被证明是该地区一个重要的新油区。 Luiperd井在开发良好的下白垩统优质储层中，钻井深度约为3400米，净凝析油深度为73米。 道达尔公司勘探和生产总裁Arnaud Breuillac表示:“我们对第二次发现非常满意，结果令人鼓舞，这证明了该海上气田具有世界级的水平。”“随着这一发现和地震勘探的成功，道达尔公司及其合作伙伴已经获得了有关帕塔瓦西航道的重要数据，这将有助于推进天然气开发研究，并与南非当局就天然气商业化的可能条件进行接触。” 11B/12B区块面积1.9万平方公里，水深200~1800米。道达尔拥有45％的权益，另外QP(25％)、CNR国际(20%)和南非财团Main Street(10％)。 冯娟 摘译自 管道油气新闻网 原文如下： Total makes second significant gas find off South Africa Total has made a significant gas condensate discovery on the Luiperd prospect, located on Block 11B/12B in the Outeniqua Basin, 175 kilometers off the southern coast of South Africa. This discovery follows the adjacent play opening Brulpadda discovery in 2019, which proved a significant new petroleum province in the region. The Luiperd well was drilled to a total depth of about 3,400 meters and encountered 73 meters of net gas condensate pay in well-developed good quality Lower Cretaceous reservoirs. “We are very pleased with this second discovery and its very encouraging results, which prove the world-class nature of this offshore gas play,” said Arnaud Breuillac, President Exploration & Production at Total. ‘’With this discovery and the successful seismic acquisitions, Total and its partners have acquired important data on the Paddavissie fairway, which will help to progress development studies and engage with South African authorities regarding the possible conditions of the gas commercialization.” The Block 11B/12B covers an area of 19,000 square kilometers, with water depths ranging from 200 to 1,800 meters. It is operated by Total with a 45 percent working interest, alongside QP (25 percent), CNR international (20 per cent) and Main Street, a South African consortium (10 percent).
中国石化新闻网讯 据10月28日Kallanish Energy报道，阿曼今年的液化天然气(LNG)出口较2019年下降了10%，但这对这个中东国家来说并不全是坏消息。 根据Kpler的数据，与去年同期的787万吨相比，阿曼今年出口了706万吨液化天然气。总体而言，2019年，阿曼液化天然气工厂出口了1068万吨，超过了其1040万吨的额定年产能。 尽管阿曼今年的出口预计不会达到2019年的水平，但出口量下降反映出，该国的脱瓶颈项目将在2021年底前将产能增加100万吨，至1140万吨。 Kpler在周二的一份报告中表示：“对阿曼来说，去瓶颈项目的到来可能是最好的时机。这是因为该项目将分阶段进行，三条生产线一次停运其中一条。这意味着在项目完成之前，工厂的出口能力将会下降。这与新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内影响液化天然气需求的情况正好吻合。” 阿曼液化天然气的主要长期供应合同分别与Kogas、Union Fenosa、英国石油公司(bp)、大阪天然气公司(Osaka Gas)和Itochu签订。Kpler指出，所有这些合同都将在2024年底到2027年初之间到期。 该国能否延长这些合同，将取决于原料天然气的数量，以及该国Khazzan和Ghazeer气田等上游气田的开发。 尽管来自卡塔尔的竞争加剧可能会给阿曼的液化天然气出口带来压力，但Kpler的分析师认为，与卡塔尔相比，阿曼有一个“巨大”优势——阿曼的液化工厂不在波斯湾，因此，受益于较低的地缘政治风险。 王佳晶 摘译自 Kallanish Energy 原文如下： Oman LNG exports down 10% so far this year Omani liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are 10% lower so far this year than in 2019, but that’s not all bad news for the Middle Eastern country, Kallanish Energy reports. According to data by Kpler, Oman has exported 7.06 million tonnes of LNG this year, compared with 7.87 Mt this time last year. Overall, in 2019, the Oman LNG plant exported 10.68 Mt, which is above its nameplate capacity of 10.4 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). Although Oman isn’t expected to reach 2019’s exports levels this year, the lower exports volumes reflect its debottlenecking project to increase capacity by 1 Mtpa to 11.4 Mtpa by the end of 2021. “The debottlenecking project may have come at the best possible time for Oman,” Kpler said in a note on Tuesday. That’s because the project will be undertaken in stages, with one of the three trains shutdown at a time. “This means the plant’s export capacity will be lower until the project is complete. This coincides well with LNG demand being hit worldwide by the Covid-19 outbreak,” Kpler said. Oman LNG’s main long-term supply contracts are signed with Kogas (4.06 Mtpa), Union Fenosa (1.65 Mtpa), bp (1.1 Mtpa), Osaka Gas (0.8 Mtpa) and Itochu (0.7 Mtpa). Kpler notes that all these contracts will expire between the end of 2024 and early 2027. The country’s ability to extend these contracts will depend on feedgas volumes and to upstream development in the country, such as the Khazzan and Ghazeer fields. While enhanced competition from Qatar could pressure Omani LNG exports, analysts at Kpler believe Oman has a “major” advantage compared to Qatar: “its liquefaction plant isn’t located in the Persian Gulf, and therefore, benefits from lower geopolitical risks.”
中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网10月26日新加坡报道，航运和贸易消息人士周一表示，由于预计北亚将迎来比预期更冷的冬季，对货物的需求增加，液化天然气(LNG)运输费已飙升至一年来的最高水平。 四名船舶经纪人对路透表示，一艘16万立方米的油轮在太平洋和大西洋盆地装运液化天然气的日租费目前估计约为每天8.5万-10.5万美元。 Spark Commodities董事总经理蒂姆·门德尔松（Tim Mendelssohn）表示，周五日租费上涨23,750美元，为去年10月以来的最大单日涨幅。 Mendlessohn列举了一些严重原因，使价格上涨了约29％。 他表示，货运价格走强，套利活动增加，没有计划取消美国墨西哥湾沿岸的货运，以及冬季市场更为看涨的情绪，都在推动租船商确保跨越两个盆地的液化天然气吨数。 这正转化为大西洋和太平洋地区现货和即月运费的显著增加。 据贸易商称，亚洲现货LNG货价周五升至1月以来最高，因预计冬季比预期更冷，来自北亚买家的需求强劲。 根据Refinitiv Eikon的船舶追踪数据显示，主要受到韩国需求激增的推动，北亚的液化天然气月运输量将创下自1月以来的最高水平。 船舶经纪人表示，预计也不会有来自美国的货运订单被取消，今年早些时候已经有数十起订单被取消。 杰弗瑞航运周刊(Jefferies Shipping Weekly)的分析师表示，随着新冠疫情复苏的到来，及该地区需求的恢复，液化天然气的运输速度预计将在明年进一步提高。 他们在周一的一份报告中称，我们认为，相对于2020年的疲弱，2021年的液化天然气运输市场将有所改善，因全球液化天然气需求在疫情后复苏，特别是在东北亚市场。 郝芬 译自 能源世界 原文如下： LNG tanker rates soar ahead of expected cold Asian winter Shipping rates for liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers have soared to their highest in a year ahead as demand for cargoes rose on expectations of a colder than expected winter in North Asia, shipping and trade sources said on Monday. The daily charter rate for shipping LNG on a 160,000 cubic metres tanker in Pacific and Atlantic basins are currently estimated to be about $85,000 to $105,000 a day, four shipbrokers told Reuters. Rates rose by $23,750 a day on Friday, the biggest daily rise since last October, said Tim Mendelssohn, managing director at Spark Commodities. Mendlessohn listed severeal reasons for what would have been an increase of around 29 per cent. "Strengthening cargo prices, an increasing arbitrage, no planned U.S. Gulf Coast cargo cancellations and a more bullish winter sentiment are driving charterers to secure LNG tonnage across both basins," he said. "This is translating into significant increases in spot and front month freight rates in both the Atlantic and Pacific." Asian spot LNG cargo prices rose to their highest since January on Friday on the back of firm demand from North Asian buyers ahead of a colder than expected winter, traders said. Monthly LNG shipments into North Asia are set to rise to their highest since January, primarily driven by a jump in demand from South Korea, shiptracking data from Refinitiv Eikon showed. There are also expected to be no cargo cancellations from the United States, after dozens of cancellations earlier this year, shipbrokers said. LNG shipping rates are expected to improve further next year as demand recovers in the region once recovery from the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, said analysts from Jefferies Shipping Weekly. "We believe the LNG shipping market will improve in 2021 relative to a weak 2020 as global demand for LNG recovers post-COVID, especially in Northeast Asian markets," they said in a note on Monday.
中国石化新闻网讯 据离岸工程网站10月27日消息 BP在第三季度扭亏为盈，但报告称，从新冠病毒大流行中复苏的步伐仍然不确定，并继续打压燃料需求和炼油利润。 这家总部位于伦敦的公司表示，虽然亚洲，尤其是中国的燃料需求正在复苏，但全球第四季度迄今为止的消费仍然疲软。 受油价疲软和投资者对BP能否成功从化石燃料转向可再生能源的担忧影响，BP股价今年已下跌逾50%，并维持在25年来的低点附近。 不过，BP首席财务官默里?奥金克洛斯向路透社表示，冠状病毒危机不会减缓BP公司的过渡计划。 奥金克洛斯说：“很难想象环境会比第三季度更加残酷，即使第四季度没有实质性的不同。” BP报告称，截至9月30日的三个月内，该公司的基本重置成本利润为8600万美元，超出了分析师预期的1.2亿美元的亏损。此前，该公司在上一季度出现创纪录的67亿美元的亏损，当时还将股息减半。 他补充称，疲弱的燃料需求继续拖累炼油利润率，BP炼油厂的开工率为80%。燃料需求仍低于危机前水平15%左右。 BP的炼油利润率为6.20美元/桶，较上一季度略有增长，但不到去年同期的一半。 BP表示，油价上涨和天然气交易业务强劲提振了业绩，不过，石油交易较上一季度明显下降。 炼油和贸易通常有助于抵消疲软的石油和天然气价格，但BP及其同行今年遭遇了一场完美风暴，当时冠状病毒疫情导致油气价格和燃料需求双双大幅下跌。 瑞士信贷分析师托马斯阿道夫在一份报告中表示：“尽管宏观环境困难，但BP的基本表现仍然强劲。” 截至格林尼治标准时间8时17分，BP股价上涨1.6%。 吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程 原文如下： BP Swings Back to Small 3Q Profit BP swung back to a small profit in the third quarter but warned the pace of recovery from the pandemic remains uncertain and continued to weigh on fuel demand and refining profits. The London-based company said that while fuel demand in Asia, particularly in China, was recovering, global consumption remained weak so far in the fourth quarter. BP's shares are down more than 50% this year and remain near 25-year lows, battered by weak oil prices and investor concerns about BP's ability to successfully shift to renewable energy from fossil fuels. The coronavirus crisis will however not slow BP's transition plans, Chief Financial Officer Murray Auchincloss told Reuters. "It is hard to imagine the environment being much more brutal than it was in the third quarter," Auchincloss said, even if the fourth quarter "is not materially different." BP reported a $86 million underlying replacement cost profit, the company's definition of net income, for the three months to Sept. 30, beating analysts' expectations of a loss of $120 million. It followed a record $6.7 billion loss in the previous quarter, when it also halved its dividend. Weak fuel demand continued to weigh on refining profit margins, with BP refineries operating at 80% of capacity, he added. Fuel demand remains around 15% below pre-crisis levels. BP's refining margin of $6.20 per barrel was up slightly from the previous quarter but less than half of what it was a year earlier. The results were boosted by higher oil prices and stronger natural gas trading results, though oil trading was "significantly lower" than the previous quarter, BP said. Refining and trading typically help offset weak oil and gas prices. But BP and its peers hit a perfect storm this year when the coronavirus epidemic led to both sharp drops in oil and gas prices and fuel demand. "Despite the difficult macro backdrop, this was a strong underlying performance from BP," Credit Suisse analyst Thomas Adolff said in a note. BP shares were up 1.6% by 0817 GMT.
中国石化新闻网讯 据石油新闻伦敦报道，英国ITM电力公司首席执行官格雷厄姆·库利10月23日表示，英国将在2021年第一季度推出一项氢战略。 库利是英国氢咨询委员会的成员，英国氢咨询委员会由国务大臣夸西·科沃腾和荷兰皇家壳牌公司的西尼德· 林奇共同担任主席。英国商业、能源和工业战略部尚未立即确认这项计划。 库利说，“英国政府正在制定一项氢战略，这项氢战略将在2021年第一季度推出。这项正在协同努力的氢战略对在英国使用氢气有一个重要的愿景。” 库利不愿提及英国氢战略的内容，但他表示，“随着对绿色(可再生)氢的日益重视，英国政府正在重新调整其对氢气的态度。” 库利说，在法国、德国、荷兰、葡萄牙和西班牙宣布的战略中已经出现了这种情况。这种重视还反映在伦敦资本市场围绕绿色氢气行业建立的知识深度上，ITM电力公司最近一轮融资获得的大力支持就证明了这一点。 迄今为止，英国对工业脱碳项目的适度资助主要集中在格兰杰默斯港、亨伯赛德郡、默西塞德郡、蒂赛德地区和南威尔士等工业中心地带的碳捕获和存储群上。 迄今英国只有一个重要的绿色氢气项目Gigastack项目获得了研究资金。这个项目由ITM 电力公司、丹麦Orsted电力公司、美国菲利普斯66公司和Element 能源公司牵头。 李峻 编译自 石油新闻 原文如下： UK hydrogen strategy to be launched in Q1: ITM's Cooley A UK hydrogenstrategy is to be launched in the first quarter of 2021, ITM CEO Graham Cooley said on Oct. 23. Cooley is a member of the UK's Hydrogen Advisory Council, co-chaired by Minister of State Kwasi Kwarteng and Sinead Lynch of Shell. The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy was not immediately able to confirm the schedule. "The UK government is working on a strategy, to be launched in the first quarter of 2021. There is a concerted effort going on and it has a significant vision for using hydrogen in the UK," Cooley said. Cooley would not be drawn on the content of a UK strategy, but said there was a "re-balancing of the UK government's approach to hydrogen with an increasing emphasis on green [renewable] hydrogen". That is already the case in strategies announced by France, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, Cooley said. The emphasis was also mirrored in the depth of knowledge being built around the green hydrogen sector in London's capital markets, demonstrated by strong support of ITM's recent funding round. Modest funding of industrial decarbonization projects in the UK have to date focused on carbon capture and storage clusters in the industrial heartlands of Grangemouth, Humberside, Merseyside, Teesside and South Wales. Just one major green hydrogen initiative, the Gigastack project, has received study funding. The project is led by ITM Power, Orsted, Phillips 66 Limited and Element Energy.
中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工新闻10月27日消息称，BP宣布其最新开发项目“埃及海上项目”开始生产–位于北达米埃塔海上特许权的卡塔迈亚气田。 该油田由BP的合资企业法老王石油公司（PhPC）进行开发，预计天然气日产量达5000万立方英尺。 BP北非区域总裁Karim Alaa表示：“通过BP在埃及海上大量重要资产和基础设施，我们能够高效、经济地开发卡塔迈亚。通过高质量、高效的油气开发创造价值是BP战略的关键部分。我们认为这是恢复碳氢化合物开发的一个很好的例子。 “我们很自豪能在一个极具挑战性的时期内安全地将该项目投入生产。我们的团队将继续努力，以支持埃及实现其能源资源的潜力，增加我们的交付记录，并通过我们与埃及石油部门的牢固合作伙伴关系来实现这一目标。” 卡塔迈亚于2017年宣布发现，它位于Ha'py平台以西约45公里，水深108米。 BP在东尼罗河三角洲的北达米埃塔海上特许权中拥有100％的股权。油田的天然气生产将直接运往埃及的国家电网。 曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻 原文如下： BP begins production at Qattameya field BP has announced the start of production from its latest development ?offshore Egypt – the Qattameya gas field in the North Damietta offshore concession. Through BP’s joint venture, Pharaonic Petroleum Company (PhPC), the field, which is ?expected to produce up to 50 million ft3/d of gas.? Karim Alaa, BP’s North Africa regional president, said: “By building on BP’s significant ?existing assets and infrastructure offshore Egypt, we were able to develop Qattameya ?efficiently and economically. Creating value through high quality, efficient oil and gas ?developments is a key part of BP’s strategy. We see this as a great example of resilient ?hydrocarbons development. ?“We are proud to have brought this project safely onstream through an extremely ?challenging period. Our team continues to work to support Egypt realising the potential of ?its energy resources, adding to our track-record of delivery and enabled by our established ?partnerships with the Egyptian petroleum sector.” Qattameya, whose discovery was announced in 2017, is located approximately 45 km west ?of the Ha’py platform, in 108 m of water. BP holds 100% equity in the North Damietta offshore concession in the East Nile Delta. ?Gas production from the field is directed to Egypt’s national grid.?
中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气新闻2020年的10月25日迪拜报道，阿联酋上市公司达纳天然气公司日前同意把其在埃及的大部分资产以2.36亿美元的价格出售给私营勘探和生产运营商IPR Wastani石油公司，以集中精力在伊拉克半自治的库尔德地区开展业务。 达纳天然气公司在10月25日的一份声明中说，该公司将出售其在El Manzala、West El Manzala、West El Qantara和North El Salhiya的100%陆上租借区开采权益和相关开发租约。达纳天然气公司从2019年第二季度开始就剥离这些资产进行谈判。达纳天然气公司还表示，该公司将保留其在El Matariya(区块3)和North El Arish(区块6)的陆上和海上勘探特许权，并将积极追求这些资产价值的最大化。 达纳天然气公司说，将出售的埃及资产上半年日产量为3.095万桶油当量，为公司的Ebitda收益贡献了3800万美元。达纳天然气公司表示，这笔有待埃及石油和矿产资源部批准的出售预计将在2021年初完成。 达纳天然气公司首席执行官帕特里克·瓦尔德在声明中说，“完成销售过程将允许我们加强我们的资产负债表以及把注意力集中在开发我们在库尔德地区的世界级资产，我们目前在那里的储量份额超过10亿桶油当量。” 李峻 编译自 天然气新闻 原文如下： UAE's Dana Gas to sell most of Egypt assets The UAE's publicly listed Dana Gas has agreed to sell the majority of its Egyptian assets to a private exploration and production operator IPR Wastani Petroleum for up to $236 million in a bid to focus on its operations in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Dana Gas, which started talks to divest the assets in Q2 of 2019, is selling its 100% working interests in the El Manzala, West El Manzala, West El Qantara and North El Salhiya onshore concessions and associated development leases, it said in a statement Oct. 25. It is retaining its interests in onshore and offshore exploration concessions, the El Matariya (Block 3) and North El Arish (Block 6), and "will actively pursue maximizing the value of these assets," it added. The Egyptian assets being sold produced 30,950 boe/d in H1 and contributed $38 million to the company's Ebitda, it said. The sale, subject to approval by the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, is expected to be completed in early 2021, it said. "Completion of the sale process will allow us to strengthen our balance sheet and focus our attention on the development of our world class assets in the (Kurdish region of Iraq) KRI, of which our current share of reserves are over 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with considerably more resources for realization and development," CEO Patrick Allman-Ward said in the statement.
中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社10月27日报道，减少化石燃料的使用不足以减缓气候变化。全球减排任务的进程已经延误了很久，需要采取措施从空气中分离（去除）二氧化碳。 根据一项新的研究显示，如果有适当的监管和激励措施，从事从空气中去除二氧化碳的行业很快就会带来与今天的石油和天然气行业一样多的收入。在短期内，这意味着更多的资金将流向减少碳排放的环境自净方式，例如植树和保护泥炭沼泽和红树林等地区。最终，一些直接从空气中捕捉二氧化碳或者增强岩石风化等技术将兴起热潮，不过这些技术还没有成熟，也没有足够的资金来大规模应用。 这项由Vivid Economics发表的研究发现，到2050年，每年来自负排放或碳抵消的收入可能达到1.4万亿美元，高于目前的约3亿美元。相比之下，根据Rystad能源咨询公司的预测，石油和天然气行业今年预计将带来1.5万亿美元的收入，较2019年减少约40%。 Vivid Economics的执行董事Jason Eis表示，政府为碳去除项目支付的费用与他们多年来为其他环境保护支付的费用并没有太大的差别。人们为自身的生活环境付费，通过向公用事业公司支付费用，将干净的水输送到家中，而家庭产出的废水又由税收来支付处理费用。因此，购买行为也有助于从大气层中去除有害的温室气体。 Vivid Economics估计的收入预期远高于其他专家。哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)高级研究学者胡利奥·弗里德曼(Julio Friedmann)认为，到2050年，碳去除行业的收入可能接近5000亿美元。致力于碳减排的非营利组织“Carbon 180”的执行董事诺亚?戴奇(Noah Deich)称，预测一个市场30年后的价值是一种“高度投机的行为”，尤其是当下，这个市场还未孕育出来。 今天的碳抵消市场很大一部分依赖于经济实体自愿购买信用额度来实现自己设定的目标。尽管这种自愿购买的市场有望增长，但在政府监管机构的监管下，成熟的高市场化的碳去除市场将快速扩张。 然而，无论是依赖自愿购买的市场还是成熟的正式市场都需要可信赖的供应商。而政府法规可以帮助建立标准，监测和验证自然解决方案和技术选择是否能像承诺的那样储存二氧化碳。这也将帮助客户比较不同的碳去除产品，从雨林保护到海洋海藻农场等等，以找到真正符合需求的产品。 尽管许多专家对最终的税收含糊其词，但他们一致认为需要一个强有力的碳抵消市场，尤其是在世界上大多数最大的经济体都在致力于实现净零排放的情况下。渣打银行(Standard Chartered Plc)首席执行长温特斯(Bill Winters)去年9月警告称，如果没有正确的保障措施，碳抵消行业可能容易受到类似利率操纵的影响。英国央行(Bank of England)前行长马克?卡尼(Mark Carney)本月早些时候表示，尽管碳抵消市场会很复杂，但这也将是实现气候目标的重要组成部分。并预计，如果世界各国认真对待气候行动，该收入将至少达到数百亿美元。 即使化石燃料销售收入下降，大型石油公司也不需要做旁观者。从空气中提取二氧化碳的一些技术选择需要用到传统能源公司拥有的精确的专业知识和基础设施。这些公司需要将碳抽回到地下深处——这通常也是发现石油和天然气的地点，而不是将碳从地下抽出。 牛津大学(University of Oxford)研究员塞西尔吉拉丁(Cecile Girardin)表示：“这是一个巨大的机会，可以引导投资流向正确的项目。” 王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： With Big Oil Declining, Carbon Removal Could Take Its Place Transitioning away from fossil fuels won’t be enough to slow climate change. The world has delayed the task of cutting emissions for so long that we likely will have to also deploy solutions to draw down carbon dioxide from the air. With the right regulations and incentives in place, the carbon removal industry could soon be bringing in as much revenue as today’s oil and gas sector, according to a new study. In the near term that means more money going toward natural ways of drawing down carbon, e.g. tree-planting and preservation of areas such as peat bogs and mangrove forests. Eventually we’ll see the rise of technologies such as direct air capture or enhanced rock weathering, which aren’t yet ready or cheap enough to be deployed at scale. The study, published by Vivid Economics, finds that revenue from negative emissions or carbon offsets could reach $1.4 trillion annually by 2050, up from about $300 million today. For comparison, according to consultancy Rystad Energy, the oil and gas industry is projected to bring in $1.5 trillion this year—about 40% less than it did in 2019. Governments paying for carbon removal isn’t so different from any of the other environmental protections they’ve paid for over the years, said Jason Eis, executive director of Vivid Economics. “The public buys all sorts of environmental outcomes,” he said. “We buy clean water” by paying utilities to pipe it into our homes and through taxes to treat the waste water we return. So, he thinks, we’ll also buy the removal of harmful greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Vivid Economics’ revenue estimates are much higher than those of other experts. Julio Friedmann, a senior research scholar at Columbia University, thinks the carbon removal industry’s revenues in 2050 are likely to be closer to $500 billion. Noah Deich, executive director of Carbon 180, a non-profit that works on carbon removal, called predicting the value of a market 30 years from now a “highly speculative exercise,” especially when that market barely exists today. A good fraction of today’s carbon offsets market relies on entities voluntarily buying credits to meet self-set goals. Even though the voluntary market is expected to grow, formal markets overseen by government regulators are able to scale much more quickly. Both voluntary and compliance markets, however, need vendors that can be trusted. Government regulations can help create standards for monitoring and verifying that both natural solutions and technological options can store away carbon dioxide as promised. These will also help customers compare across different carbon removal products, from rainforest protections to ocean kelp farms, to find the one that will actually suit their needs. Though they quibble about its eventual revenues, many experts agree on the need for a robust carbon offset market—particularly in a world where most of the largest economies are committed to reaching net-zero emissions. Bill Winters, chief executive officer of international bank Standard Chartered Plc, warned in September that, without the right safeguards, the offsets industry could become vulnerable to interest rate-style manipulation. Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England, said earlier this month while offset markets will be complex, they will also be a major component of meeting climate goals. He expects revenues to reach at least tens of billions of dollars if the world takes climate action seriously. Even as revenues from the sale of fossil fuels decline, Big Oil needn’t be a bystander. Some of the technological options to draw down carbon dioxide from the air require the exact expertise and infrastructure possessed by legacy energy companies. Instead of drawing carbon out of the Earth, however, they will need to pump it back in, deep underground, often in the same places where oil and gas were found. “There’s a huge opportunity to direct the flow of investment to the right projects,” said Cécile Girardin, a researcher at the University of Oxford.